15.06.2026 01:00Philadelphia Stadium · Philadelphia
ElfenbeinküstevsEcuador
KYRON Hauptempfehlung

DNB 1 · 1

Modell-Scoreline: CIV 2:1 · Hauptempfehlung: Kein harter Tipp · nur DNB 1 als vorsichtige Variante

8,5 %Scoreline-Wahrscheinlichkeit
2:0Alternativ-Ergebnis
1:1Rein wahrscheinlichste Scoreline
32Reliability
volatileExact-Score-Basis

enger xG-Korridor · Stärkste Signale: KYRON Elo pro Auswärts, Form pro Heim · Hauptempfehlung bleibt 1X2/Safe, Exact Score ist Nebeninfo · Safe: DNB 1 · Confidence 43/100 · Risiko high

38 %Sieg CIV
25 %Remis
36 %Sieg ECU
1,41xG Heim
1,37xG Auswärts
11X2 Haupttipp
43Confidence
32Reliability
representative_outcome_scorelineTipp-Strategie
Exact Score ist volatil; als Nebeninfo lesen, nicht als sichere Ergebnisansage.

Plausible Modell-Scorelines

Der exakte Score ist keine sichere Vorhersage. KYRON nutzt ihn nur als Modell-Scoreline; Hauptempfehlung bleiben 1X2, Safe-Tipp und Risiko.

1:1
12,0 %
1:0
8,7 %
0:1
8,5 %
2:1
8,5 %
1:2
8,2 %
0:0
6,2 %
2:0
6,2 %
0:2
5,8 %

Over 2.5 53 % BTTS 56 % Hauptempfehlung: DNB 1 Risiko high

V9 Ensemble- und Daten-Signale

FIFA Ranking
Offizielle FIFA-Punkte als Grundstärke: Differenz -57,65 · FIFA-Rang 33 vs 23
Gewicht 31,3 % Qualität 100 %
KYRON Elo
KYRON-Elo/Turnier-Elo inklusive Gastgeberbonus: Differenz -159,1
Gewicht 22,5 % Qualität 72 %
Form
Kurzfristige Form aus Formwert/FIFA-Punktedelta: Differenz 12,93
Gewicht 17,0 % Qualität 68 %
Attack/Defense
Offensiv-/Defensiv-Matchup: Heimspur 0,044, Auswärtsspur -0,020
Gewicht 29,3 % Qualität 78 %
Market Check
Kein Markt-/Quoten-Snapshot vorhanden; Modellanteil wird für dieses Spiel nicht gewichtet.
Gewicht 0,0 % Qualität 0 %
Modell-Snapshot anzeigen
{"match":{"id":11,"kickoff_at":"2026-06-15 01:00:00","venue":"Philadelphia Stadium"},"home":{"id":19,"name":"Elfenbeinküste","short_name":"CIV","elo":"1540.87","kyron_elo":null,"attack_rating":"74.39","defense_rating":"72.02","form_rating":"81.48","rolling_form":null,"fifa_rank":33,"fifa_points":"1540.87","fifa_points_delta":"7.89","source":"fifa_ranking_2026_06_11","source_date":"2026-06-11","data_quality":"1.00","is_host":0},"away":{"id":20,"name":"Ecuador","short_name":"ECU","elo":"1700.00","kyron_elo":null,"attack_rating":"70.00","defense_rating":"70.00","form_rating":"70.00","rolling_form":null,"fifa_rank":23,"fifa_points":"1598.52","fifa_points_delta":"3.74","source":"fifa_ranking_2026_06_11","source_date":"2026-06-11","data_quality":"1.00","is_host":0},"adjustment":null,"settings":{"base_goals":1.350000000000000088817841970012523233890533447265625,"host_factor":0.11999999999999999555910790149937383830547332763671875,"home_advantage":0.08000000000000000166533453693773481063544750213623046875,"weights":{"fifa_ranking":0.3125,"kyron_elo":0.22499999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"form":0.1700000000000000122124532708767219446599483489990234375,"attack_defense":0.292499999999999982236431605997495353221893310546875,"market":0}},"v9_mismatch_goal_bonus":{"weighted_edge":-0.043748971472647245339882005055187619291245937347412109375,"bonus":0},"ensemble":[{"key":"fifa_ranking","label":"FIFA Ranking","weight":0.25,"home_edge":-0.13640630947367815561932502532727085053920745849609375,"home_xg_adjustment":-0.0463781452210505762412395824867417104542255401611328125,"away_xg_adjustment":0.0463781452210505762412395824867417104542255401611328125,"confidence":0.5353000000000001090683099391753785312175750732421875,"data_quality":1,"explanation":"Offizielle FIFA-Punkte als Grundstärke: Differenz -57,65 · FIFA-Rang 33 vs 23","debug":{"home_points":1540.8699999999998908606357872486114501953125,"away_points":1598.51999999999998181010596454143524169921875,"points_diff":-57.65000000000009094947017729282379150390625},"effective_weight":0.3125},{"key":"kyron_elo","label":"KYRON Elo","weight":0.25,"home_edge":-0.37808641164118095279178533019148744642734527587890625,"home_xg_adjustment":-0.1134259234923542802864204759316635318100452423095703125,"away_xg_adjustment":0.1134259234923542802864204759316635318100452423095703125,"confidence":0.7060192307692310098587995526031590998172760009765625,"data_quality":0.7199999999999999733546474089962430298328399658203125,"explanation":"KYRON-Elo/Turnier-Elo inklusive Gastgeberbonus: Differenz -159,1","debug":{"home_elo":1540.8699999999998908606357872486114501953125,"away_elo":1700,"home_host_bonus":0,"away_host_bonus":0,"elo_diff":-159.1300000000001091393642127513885498046875},"effective_weight":0.22499999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375},{"key":"form","label":"Form","weight":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"home_edge":0.38036764705882364356881453204550780355930328369140625,"home_xg_adjustment":0.08368088235294120214025070936258998699486255645751953125,"away_xg_adjustment":-0.08368088235294120214025070936258998699486255645751953125,"confidence":0.59513636363636368553642341794329695403575897216796875,"data_quality":0.68000000000000004884981308350688777863979339599609375,"explanation":"Kurzfristige Form aus Formwert/FIFA-Punktedelta: Differenz 12,93","debug":{"home_form":81.4800000000000039790393202565610408782958984375,"away_form":70,"home_delta":7.88999999999999968025576890795491635799407958984375,"away_delta":3.7400000000000002131628207280300557613372802734375,"form_diff":12.9325000000000045474735088646411895751953125},"effective_weight":0.1700000000000000122124532708767219446599483489990234375},{"key":"attack_defense","label":"Attack/Defense","weight":0.299999999999999988897769753748434595763683319091796875,"home_edge":0.06593142857142854362795247880058013834059238433837890625,"home_xg_adjustment":0.031608000000000004148237309209434897638857364654541015625,"away_xg_adjustment":-0.01454399999999997188104838841127275372855365276336669921875,"confidence":0.43127999999999999669597627871553413569927215576171875,"data_quality":0.7800000000000000266453525910037569701671600341796875,"explanation":"Offensiv-/Defensiv-Matchup: Heimspur 0,044, Auswärtsspur -0,020","debug":{"home_attack":74.3900000000000005684341886080801486968994140625,"away_attack":70,"home_defense":72.0199999999999960209606797434389591217041015625,"away_defense":70,"home_lane":0.04390000000000000845989944764369283802807331085205078125,"away_lane":-0.020199999999999961042274065903256996534764766693115234375},"effective_weight":0.292499999999999982236431605997495353221893310546875},{"key":"market","label":"Market Check","weight":0,"home_edge":0,"home_xg_adjustment":0,"away_xg_adjustment":0,"confidence":0,"data_quality":0,"explanation":"Kein Markt-/Quoten-Snapshot vorhanden; Modellanteil wird für dieses Spiel nicht gewichtet.","debug":[],"effective_weight":0}],"calibration":{"score":43,"risk":"high","warnings":[],"model_agreement":0.53749999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"separation":0.01905469784146074374575619003735482692718505859375},"direct_tip":{"score":"2:1","label":"Modell-Scoreline: CIV 2:1 · Hauptempfehlung: Kein harter Tipp · nur DNB 1 als vorsichtige Variante","probability":0.08457640288274763384901433482809807173907756805419921875,"strategy":"representative_outcome_scoreline","exact_score_reliability":"volatile","top_5":[{"home_goals":1,"away_goals":1,"probability":0.11967311023537530179083887560409493744373321533203125},{"home_goals":1,"away_goals":0,"probability":0.08725492668491428849275592938283807598054409027099609375},{"home_goals":0,"away_goals":1,"probability":0.0846669568890456025744839507751748897135257720947265625},{"home_goals":2,"away_goals":1,"probability":0.08457640288274763384901433482809807173907756805419921875},{"home_goals":1,"away_goals":2,"probability":0.082067877755058582511793474623118527233600616455078125}],"reason":"enger xG-Korridor · Stärkste Signale: KYRON Elo pro Auswärts, Form pro Heim · Hauptempfehlung bleibt 1X2/Safe, Exact Score ist Nebeninfo · Safe: DNB 1 · Confidence 43/100 · Risiko high"},"rating_policy":"V9 Trust & Integrity: Hauptempfehlung ist 1X2/Safe; exakte Scoreline ist nur eine repräsentative Modell-Scoreline mit klarer Unsicherheitskennzeichnung.","trust_mode":"honest","primary_recommendation":"Kein harter Tipp · nur DNB 1 als vorsichtige Variante","scoreline_note":"Repräsentative Scoreline gewählt, weil mehrere Top-Ergebnisse dicht beieinander liegen. Reine Top-Scoreline wäre 1:1. Torprofil spricht nicht für reinen Minimal-Score. BTTS-Signal ist relevant. 1X2-Ausgang eng, Exact Score besonders vorsichtig lesen.","display_policy":"Exact Score ist nur Modell-Scoreline/Nebeninfo. Hauptempfehlung ist 1X2 bzw. Safe-Tipp."}