1X · 1

{"match":{"id":31,"kickoff_at":"2026-06-20 02:30:00","venue":"Philadelphia Stadium"},"home":{"id":9,"name":"Brazil","short_name":"BRA","elo":"1700.00","kyron_elo":null,"attack_rating":"70.00","defense_rating":"70.00","form_rating":"70.00","rolling_form":null,"fifa_rank":6,"fifa_points":"1765.86","fifa_points_delta":"4.70","source":"fifa_ranking_2026_06_11","source_date":"2026-06-11","data_quality":"1.00","is_host":0},"away":{"id":11,"name":"Haiti","short_name":"HAI","elo":"1700.00","kyron_elo":null,"attack_rating":"70.00","defense_rating":"70.00","form_rating":"70.00","rolling_form":null,"fifa_rank":83,"fifa_points":"1293.00","fifa_points_delta":null,"source":"fifa_ranking_2026_06_11","source_date":"2026-06-11","data_quality":"0.95","is_host":0},"adjustment":null,"settings":{"base_goals":1.350000000000000088817841970012523233890533447265625,"host_factor":0.11999999999999999555910790149937383830547332763671875,"home_advantage":0.08000000000000000166533453693773481063544750213623046875,"weights":{"fifa_ranking":0.301587301587301570560128993747639469802379608154296875,"kyron_elo":0.2285714285714285642914234131239936687052249908447265625,"form":0.1726984126984127121406942251269356347620487213134765625,"attack_defense":0.2971428571428571530077533680014312267303466796875,"market":0}},"v9_mismatch_goal_bonus":{"weighted_edge":0.252519611527413478935244484091526828706264495849609375,"bonus":0.0522141202997377096295394949265755712985992431640625},"ensemble":[{"key":"fifa_ranking","label":"FIFA Ranking","weight":0.25,"home_edge":0.8095966066435289487657200879766605794429779052734375,"home_xg_adjustment":0.275262846258799875887035568666760809719562530517578125,"away_xg_adjustment":-0.275262846258799875887035568666760809719562530517578125,"confidence":0.92000000000000003996802888650563545525074005126953125,"data_quality":0.9499999999999999555910790149937383830547332763671875,"explanation":"Offizielle FIFA-Punkte als Grundstärke: Differenz 472,86 · FIFA-Rang 6 vs 83","debug":{"home_points":1765.859999999999899955582804977893829345703125,"away_points":1293,"points_diff":472.859999999999899955582804977893829345703125},"effective_weight":0.301587301587301570560128993747639469802379608154296875},{"key":"kyron_elo","label":"KYRON Elo","weight":0.25,"home_edge":0,"home_xg_adjustment":0,"away_xg_adjustment":-0,"confidence":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"data_quality":0.7199999999999999733546474089962430298328399658203125,"explanation":"KYRON-Elo/Turnier-Elo inklusive Gastgeberbonus: Differenz 0,0","debug":{"home_elo":1700,"away_elo":1700,"home_host_bonus":0,"away_host_bonus":0,"elo_diff":0},"effective_weight":0.2285714285714285642914234131239936687052249908447265625},{"key":"form","label":"Form","weight":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"home_edge":0.04838235294117647355971456590850721113383769989013671875,"home_xg_adjustment":0.010644117647058824738248716812449856661260128021240234375,"away_xg_adjustment":-0.010644117647058824738248716812449856661260128021240234375,"confidence":0.38990909090909087186815895620384253561496734619140625,"data_quality":0.68000000000000004884981308350688777863979339599609375,"explanation":"Kurzfristige Form aus Formwert/FIFA-Punktedelta: Differenz 1,65","debug":{"home_form":70,"away_form":70,"home_delta":4.70000000000000017763568394002504646778106689453125,"away_delta":0,"form_diff":1.645000000000000017763568394002504646778106689453125},"effective_weight":0.1726984126984127121406942251269356347620487213134765625},{"key":"attack_defense","label":"Attack/Defense","weight":0.299999999999999988897769753748434595763683319091796875,"home_edge":0,"home_xg_adjustment":0,"away_xg_adjustment":0,"confidence":0.38000000000000000444089209850062616169452667236328125,"data_quality":0.7800000000000000266453525910037569701671600341796875,"explanation":"Offensiv-/Defensiv-Matchup: Heimspur 0,000, Auswärtsspur 0,000","debug":{"home_attack":70,"away_attack":70,"home_defense":70,"away_defense":70,"home_lane":0,"away_lane":0},"effective_weight":0.2971428571428571530077533680014312267303466796875},{"key":"market","label":"Market Check","weight":0,"home_edge":0,"home_xg_adjustment":0,"away_xg_adjustment":0,"confidence":0,"data_quality":0,"explanation":"Kein Markt-/Quoten-Snapshot vorhanden; Modellanteil wird für dieses Spiel nicht gewichtet.","debug":[],"effective_weight":0}],"calibration":{"score":56,"risk":"medium","warnings":[],"model_agreement":0.6984126984126983739287197749945335090160369873046875,"separation":0.150907206713186747837340817568474449217319488525390625},"direct_tip":{"score":"2:1","label":"Modell-Scoreline: BRA 2:1 · Hauptempfehlung: Vorsichtig: 1X","probability":0.09206461460458813250706811004420160315930843353271484375,"strategy":"representative_outcome_scoreline","exact_score_reliability":"volatile","top_5":[{"home_goals":1,"away_goals":1,"probability":0.11749918633197097006526377072077593766152858734130859375},{"home_goals":1,"away_goals":0,"probability":0.09531289463691273999845776643269346095621585845947265625},{"home_goals":2,"away_goals":1,"probability":0.09206461460458813250706811004420160315930843353271484375},{"home_goals":0,"away_goals":1,"probability":0.07498026710898327007459585047399741597473621368408203125},{"home_goals":2,"away_goals":0,"probability":0.0746808993791939490503040133262402378022670745849609375}],"reason":"xG-Vorteil Heimteam · Stärkste Signale: FIFA Ranking pro Heim · Hauptempfehlung bleibt 1X2/Safe, Exact Score ist Nebeninfo · Safe: 1X · Confidence 56/100 · Risiko medium"},"rating_policy":"V9 Trust & Integrity: Hauptempfehlung ist 1X2/Safe; exakte Scoreline ist nur eine repräsentative Modell-Scoreline mit klarer Unsicherheitskennzeichnung.","trust_mode":"honest","primary_recommendation":"Vorsichtig: 1X","scoreline_note":"Repräsentative Scoreline gewählt, weil mehrere Top-Ergebnisse dicht beieinander liegen. Reine Top-Scoreline wäre 1:1. Torprofil spricht nicht für reinen Minimal-Score. BTTS-Signal ist relevant.","display_policy":"Exact Score ist nur Modell-Scoreline/Nebeninfo. Hauptempfehlung ist 1X2 bzw. Safe-Tipp."}