20.06.2026 22:00Toronto Stadium · Toronto
GermanyvsElfenbeinküste
KYRON Hauptempfehlung

DNB 1 · 1

Modell-Scoreline: GER 2:1 · Hauptempfehlung: Kein harter Tipp · nur DNB 1 als vorsichtige Variante

8,8 %Scoreline-Wahrscheinlichkeit
2:0Alternativ-Ergebnis
1:1Rein wahrscheinlichste Scoreline
37Reliability
volatileExact-Score-Basis

enger xG-Korridor · Stärkste Signale: FIFA Ranking pro Heim, KYRON Elo pro Heim · Hauptempfehlung bleibt 1X2/Safe, Exact Score ist Nebeninfo · Safe: DNB 1 · Confidence 48/100 · Risiko high

42 %Sieg GER
25 %Remis
33 %Sieg CIV
1,48xG Heim
1,30xG Auswärts
11X2 Haupttipp
48Confidence
37Reliability
representative_outcome_scorelineTipp-Strategie
Exact Score ist volatil; als Nebeninfo lesen, nicht als sichere Ergebnisansage.

Plausible Modell-Scorelines

Der exakte Score ist keine sichere Vorhersage. KYRON nutzt ihn nur als Modell-Scoreline; Hauptempfehlung bleiben 1X2, Safe-Tipp und Risiko.

1:1
11,9 %
1:0
9,2 %
2:1
8,8 %
0:1
8,0 %
1:2
7,8 %
2:0
6,8 %
0:0
6,2 %
2:2
5,8 %

Over 2.5 53 % BTTS 56 % Hauptempfehlung: DNB 1 Risiko high

V9 Ensemble- und Daten-Signale

FIFA Ranking
Offizielle FIFA-Punkte als Grundstärke: Differenz 194,90 · FIFA-Rang 10 vs 33
Gewicht 31,3 % Qualität 100 %
KYRON Elo
KYRON-Elo/Turnier-Elo inklusive Gastgeberbonus: Differenz 159,1
Gewicht 22,5 % Qualität 72 %
Form
Kurzfristige Form aus Formwert/FIFA-Punktedelta: Differenz -12,35
Gewicht 17,0 % Qualität 68 %
Attack/Defense
Offensiv-/Defensiv-Matchup: Heimspur -0,020, Auswärtsspur 0,044
Gewicht 29,3 % Qualität 78 %
Market Check
Kein Markt-/Quoten-Snapshot vorhanden; Modellanteil wird für dieses Spiel nicht gewichtet.
Gewicht 0,0 % Qualität 0 %
Modell-Snapshot anzeigen
{"match":{"id":34,"kickoff_at":"2026-06-20 22:00:00","venue":"Toronto Stadium"},"home":{"id":17,"name":"Germany","short_name":"GER","elo":"1700.00","kyron_elo":null,"attack_rating":"70.00","defense_rating":"70.00","form_rating":"70.00","rolling_form":null,"fifa_rank":10,"fifa_points":"1735.77","fifa_points_delta":"5.40","source":"fifa_ranking_2026_06_11","source_date":"2026-06-11","data_quality":"1.00","is_host":0},"away":{"id":19,"name":"Elfenbeinküste","short_name":"CIV","elo":"1540.87","kyron_elo":null,"attack_rating":"74.39","defense_rating":"72.02","form_rating":"81.48","rolling_form":null,"fifa_rank":33,"fifa_points":"1540.87","fifa_points_delta":"7.89","source":"fifa_ranking_2026_06_11","source_date":"2026-06-11","data_quality":"1.00","is_host":0},"adjustment":null,"settings":{"base_goals":1.350000000000000088817841970012523233890533447265625,"host_factor":0.11999999999999999555910790149937383830547332763671875,"home_advantage":0.08000000000000000166533453693773481063544750213623046875,"weights":{"fifa_ranking":0.3125,"kyron_elo":0.22499999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"form":0.1700000000000000122124532708767219446599483489990234375,"attack_defense":0.292499999999999982236431605997495353221893310546875,"market":0}},"v9_mismatch_goal_bonus":{"weighted_edge":0.1394574315533223807239693314841133542358875274658203125,"bonus":0},"ensemble":[{"key":"fifa_ranking","label":"FIFA Ranking","weight":0.25,"home_edge":0.433377381731838651202082246527425013482570648193359375,"home_xg_adjustment":0.1473483097888251547313842593212029896676540374755859375,"away_xg_adjustment":-0.1473483097888251547313842593212029896676540374755859375,"confidence":0.80980000000000018633983245308627374470233917236328125,"data_quality":1,"explanation":"Offizielle FIFA-Punkte als Grundstärke: Differenz 194,90 · FIFA-Rang 10 vs 33","debug":{"home_points":1735.76999999999998181010596454143524169921875,"away_points":1540.8699999999998908606357872486114501953125,"points_diff":194.90000000000009094947017729282379150390625},"effective_weight":0.3125},{"key":"kyron_elo","label":"KYRON Elo","weight":0.25,"home_edge":0.37808641164118095279178533019148744642734527587890625,"home_xg_adjustment":0.1134259234923542802864204759316635318100452423095703125,"away_xg_adjustment":-0.1134259234923542802864204759316635318100452423095703125,"confidence":0.7060192307692310098587995526031590998172760009765625,"data_quality":0.7199999999999999733546474089962430298328399658203125,"explanation":"KYRON-Elo/Turnier-Elo inklusive Gastgeberbonus: Differenz 159,1","debug":{"home_elo":1700,"away_elo":1540.8699999999998908606357872486114501953125,"home_host_bonus":0,"away_host_bonus":0,"elo_diff":159.1300000000001091393642127513885498046875},"effective_weight":0.22499999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375},{"key":"form","label":"Form","weight":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"home_edge":-0.363279411764705961740418160843546502292156219482421875,"home_xg_adjustment":-0.0799214705882353160237840938862063921988010406494140625,"away_xg_adjustment":0.0799214705882353160237840938862063921988010406494140625,"confidence":0.58457272727272735490799959734431467950344085693359375,"data_quality":0.68000000000000004884981308350688777863979339599609375,"explanation":"Kurzfristige Form aus Formwert/FIFA-Punktedelta: Differenz -12,35","debug":{"home_form":70,"away_form":81.4800000000000039790393202565610408782958984375,"home_delta":5.4000000000000003552713678800500929355621337890625,"away_delta":7.88999999999999968025576890795491635799407958984375,"form_diff":-12.3515000000000032542857297812588512897491455078125},"effective_weight":0.1700000000000000122124532708767219446599483489990234375},{"key":"attack_defense","label":"Attack/Defense","weight":0.299999999999999988897769753748434595763683319091796875,"home_edge":-0.06593142857142854362795247880058013834059238433837890625,"home_xg_adjustment":-0.01454399999999997188104838841127275372855365276336669921875,"away_xg_adjustment":0.031608000000000004148237309209434897638857364654541015625,"confidence":0.43127999999999999669597627871553413569927215576171875,"data_quality":0.7800000000000000266453525910037569701671600341796875,"explanation":"Offensiv-/Defensiv-Matchup: Heimspur -0,020, Auswärtsspur 0,044","debug":{"home_attack":70,"away_attack":74.3900000000000005684341886080801486968994140625,"home_defense":70,"away_defense":72.0199999999999960209606797434389591217041015625,"home_lane":-0.020199999999999961042274065903256996534764766693115234375,"away_lane":0.04390000000000000845989944764369283802807331085205078125},"effective_weight":0.292499999999999982236431605997495353221893310546875},{"key":"market","label":"Market Check","weight":0,"home_edge":0,"home_xg_adjustment":0,"away_xg_adjustment":0,"confidence":0,"data_quality":0,"explanation":"Kein Markt-/Quoten-Snapshot vorhanden; Modellanteil wird für dieses Spiel nicht gewichtet.","debug":[],"effective_weight":0}],"calibration":{"score":48,"risk":"high","warnings":[],"model_agreement":0.53749999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"separation":0.0828250614653851524593619615188799798488616943359375},"direct_tip":{"score":"2:1","label":"Modell-Scoreline: GER 2:1 · Hauptempfehlung: Kein harter Tipp · nur DNB 1 als vorsichtige Variante","probability":0.08842032383362714853536346026885439641773700714111328125,"strategy":"representative_outcome_scoreline","exact_score_reliability":"volatile","top_5":[{"home_goals":1,"away_goals":1,"probability":0.119186830215922523468208282793057151138782501220703125},{"home_goals":1,"away_goals":0,"probability":0.0915930633510390890261732010912965051829814910888671875},{"home_goals":2,"away_goals":1,"probability":0.08842032383362714853536346026885439641773700714111328125},{"home_goals":0,"away_goals":1,"probability":0.08032938515158800918403159130321000702679157257080078125},{"home_goals":1,"away_goals":2,"probability":0.07754681401186035161199328058501123450696468353271484375}],"reason":"enger xG-Korridor · Stärkste Signale: FIFA Ranking pro Heim, KYRON Elo pro Heim · Hauptempfehlung bleibt 1X2/Safe, Exact Score ist Nebeninfo · Safe: DNB 1 · Confidence 48/100 · Risiko high"},"rating_policy":"V9 Trust & Integrity: Hauptempfehlung ist 1X2/Safe; exakte Scoreline ist nur eine repräsentative Modell-Scoreline mit klarer Unsicherheitskennzeichnung.","trust_mode":"honest","primary_recommendation":"Kein harter Tipp · nur DNB 1 als vorsichtige Variante","scoreline_note":"Repräsentative Scoreline gewählt, weil mehrere Top-Ergebnisse dicht beieinander liegen. Reine Top-Scoreline wäre 1:1. Torprofil spricht nicht für reinen Minimal-Score. BTTS-Signal ist relevant. 1X2-Ausgang eng, Exact Score besonders vorsichtig lesen.","display_policy":"Exact Score ist nur Modell-Scoreline/Nebeninfo. Hauptempfehlung ist 1X2 bzw. Safe-Tipp."}