22.06.2026 23:00Philadelphia Stadium · Philadelphia
FrancevsIrak
KYRON Hauptempfehlung
1X · 1
Modell-Scoreline: FRA 2:1 · Hauptempfehlung: Vorsichtig: 1X
9,6 %Scoreline-Wahrscheinlichkeit
2:0Alternativ-Ergebnis
1:1Rein wahrscheinlichste Scoreline
60Reliability
volatileExact-Score-Basis
xG-Vorteil Heimteam · Stärkste Signale: FIFA Ranking pro Heim, KYRON Elo pro Heim · Hauptempfehlung bleibt 1X2/Safe, Exact Score ist Nebeninfo · Safe: 1X · Confidence 61/100 · Risiko medium
50 %Sieg FRA
24 %Remis
26 %Sieg IRQ
1,69xG Heim
1,14xG Auswärts
11X2 Haupttipp
61Confidence
60Reliability
representative_outcome_scorelineTipp-Strategie
Exact Score ist volatil; als Nebeninfo lesen, nicht als sichere Ergebnisansage.
Plausible Modell-Scorelines
Der exakte Score ist keine sichere Vorhersage. KYRON nutzt ihn nur als Modell-Scoreline; Hauptempfehlung bleiben 1X2, Safe-Tipp und Risiko.
1:1
11,4 %
11,4 %
1:0
10,0 %
10,0 %
2:1
9,6 %
9,6 %
2:0
8,4 %
8,4 %
0:1
6,7 %
6,7 %
1:2
6,5 %
6,5 %
0:0
5,9 %
5,9 %
2:2
5,5 %
5,5 %
Over 2.5 54 % BTTS 56 % Hauptempfehlung: 1X Risiko medium
V9 Ensemble- und Daten-Signale
FIFA Ranking
Offizielle FIFA-Punkte als Grundstärke: Differenz 424,42 · FIFA-Rang 3 vs 57
Offizielle FIFA-Punkte als Grundstärke: Differenz 424,42 · FIFA-Rang 3 vs 57
Gewicht 30,2 % Qualität 95 %
KYRON Elo
KYRON-Elo/Turnier-Elo inklusive Gastgeberbonus: Differenz 253,7
KYRON-Elo/Turnier-Elo inklusive Gastgeberbonus: Differenz 253,7
Gewicht 22,9 % Qualität 72 %
Form
Kurzfristige Form aus Formwert/FIFA-Punktedelta: Differenz -1,59
Kurzfristige Form aus Formwert/FIFA-Punktedelta: Differenz -1,59
Gewicht 17,3 % Qualität 68 %
Attack/Defense
Offensiv-/Defensiv-Matchup: Heimspur 0,035, Auswärtsspur -0,036
Offensiv-/Defensiv-Matchup: Heimspur 0,035, Auswärtsspur -0,036
Gewicht 29,7 % Qualität 78 %
Market Check
Kein Markt-/Quoten-Snapshot vorhanden; Modellanteil wird für dieses Spiel nicht gewichtet.
Kein Markt-/Quoten-Snapshot vorhanden; Modellanteil wird für dieses Spiel nicht gewichtet.
Gewicht 0,0 % Qualität 0 %
Modell-Snapshot anzeigen
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Ranking","weight":0.25,"home_edge":0.76597858344930036533781958496547304093837738037109375,"home_xg_adjustment":0.2604327183727621619624414961435832083225250244140625,"away_xg_adjustment":-0.2604327183727621619624414961435832083225250244140625,"confidence":0.92000000000000003996802888650563545525074005126953125,"data_quality":0.9499999999999999555910790149937383830547332763671875,"explanation":"Offizielle FIFA-Punkte als Grundstärke: Differenz 424,42 · FIFA-Rang 3 vs 57","debug":{"home_points":1870.700000000000045474735088646411895751953125,"away_points":1446.279999999999972715158946812152862548828125,"points_diff":424.420000000000072759576141834259033203125},"effective_weight":0.301587301587301570560128993747639469802379608154296875},{"key":"kyron_elo","label":"KYRON Elo","weight":0.25,"home_edge":0.5610059936125140200857686068047769367694854736328125,"home_xg_adjustment":0.1683017980837542004746154589156503789126873016357421875,"away_xg_adjustment":-0.1683017980837542004746154589156503789126873016357421875,"confidence":0.887923076923077037037046466139145195484161376953125,"data_quality":0.7199999999999999733546474089962430298328399658203125,"explanation":"KYRON-Elo/Turnier-Elo inklusive Gastgeberbonus: Differenz 253,7","debug":{"home_elo":1700,"away_elo":1446.279999999999972715158946812152862548828125,"home_host_bonus":0,"away_host_bonus":0,"elo_diff":253.720000000000027284841053187847137451171875},"effective_weight":0.2285714285714285642914234131239936687052249908447265625},{"key":"form","label":"Form","weight":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"home_edge":-0.04667647058823516659220587143863667733967304229736328125,"home_xg_adjustment":-0.0102688235294117365115074136383555014617741107940673828125,"away_xg_adjustment":0.0102688235294117365115074136383555014617741107940673828125,"confidence":0.388854545454545341698349147918634116649627685546875,"data_quality":0.68000000000000004884981308350688777863979339599609375,"explanation":"Kurzfristige Form aus Formwert/FIFA-Punktedelta: Differenz 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-0,036","debug":{"home_attack":70,"away_attack":66.3799999999999954525264911353588104248046875,"home_defense":70,"away_defense":66.5199999999999960209606797434389591217041015625,"home_lane":0.03480000000000003923528169025303213857114315032958984375,"away_lane":-0.036200000000000044642067820177544490434229373931884765625},"effective_weight":0.2971428571428571530077533680014312267303466796875},{"key":"market","label":"Market Check","weight":0,"home_edge":0,"home_xg_adjustment":0,"away_xg_adjustment":0,"confidence":0,"data_quality":0,"explanation":"Kein Markt-/Quoten-Snapshot vorhanden; Modellanteil wird für dieses Spiel nicht gewichtet.","debug":[],"effective_weight":0}],"calibration":{"score":61,"risk":"medium","warnings":[],"model_agreement":0.53015873015873016260712802250054664909839630126953125,"separation":0.24539813095701201728360274501028470695018768310546875},"direct_tip":{"score":"2:1","label":"Modell-Scoreline: FRA 2:1 · Hauptempfehlung: Vorsichtig: 1X","probability":0.0960950295949791755134583581821061670780181884765625,"strategy":"representative_outcome_scoreline","exact_score_reliability":"volatile","top_5":[{"home_goals":1,"away_goals":1,"probability":0.11361729461427942655671330385303008370101451873779296875},{"home_goals":1,"away_goals":0,"probability":0.09958431052982356923575224527667160145938396453857421875},{"home_goals":2,"away_goals":1,"probability":0.0960950295949791755134583581821061670780181884765625},{"home_goals":2,"away_goals":0,"probability":0.0842262377400094519597217868067673407495021820068359375},{"home_goals":0,"away_goals":1,"probability":0.06716731182599290639334554953165934421122074127197265625}],"reason":"xG-Vorteil Heimteam · Stärkste Signale: FIFA Ranking pro Heim, KYRON Elo pro Heim · Hauptempfehlung bleibt 1X2/Safe, Exact Score ist Nebeninfo · Safe: 1X · Confidence 61/100 · Risiko medium"},"rating_policy":"V9 Trust & Integrity: Hauptempfehlung ist 1X2/Safe; exakte Scoreline ist nur eine repräsentative Modell-Scoreline mit klarer Unsicherheitskennzeichnung.","trust_mode":"honest","primary_recommendation":"Vorsichtig: 1X","scoreline_note":"Repräsentative Scoreline gewählt, weil mehrere Top-Ergebnisse dicht beieinander liegen. Reine Top-Scoreline wäre 1:1. Torprofil spricht nicht für reinen Minimal-Score. BTTS-Signal ist relevant.","display_policy":"Exact Score ist nur Modell-Scoreline/Nebeninfo. Hauptempfehlung ist 1X2 bzw. Safe-Tipp."}