24.06.2026 21:00Seattle Stadium · Seattle
Bosnien und HerzegowinavsQatar
KYRON Hauptempfehlung

DNB 2 · 2

Modell-Scoreline: QAT 2:1 · Hauptempfehlung: Kein harter Tipp · nur DNB 2 als vorsichtige Variante

8,8 %Scoreline-Wahrscheinlichkeit
0:2Alternativ-Ergebnis
1:1Rein wahrscheinlichste Scoreline
42Reliability
volatileExact-Score-Basis

enger xG-Korridor · Stärkste Signale: KYRON Elo pro Auswärts, FIFA Ranking pro Auswärts · Hauptempfehlung bleibt 1X2/Safe, Exact Score ist Nebeninfo · Safe: DNB 2 · Confidence 51/100 · Risiko high

34 %Sieg BIH
25 %Remis
41 %Sieg QAT
1,32xG Heim
1,48xG Auswärts
21X2 Haupttipp
51Confidence
42Reliability
representative_outcome_scorelineTipp-Strategie
Exact Score ist volatil; als Nebeninfo lesen, nicht als sichere Ergebnisansage.

Plausible Modell-Scorelines

Der exakte Score ist keine sichere Vorhersage. KYRON nutzt ihn nur als Modell-Scoreline; Hauptempfehlung bleiben 1X2, Safe-Tipp und Risiko.

1:1
11,9 %
0:1
9,0 %
1:2
8,8 %
1:0
8,0 %
2:1
7,8 %
0:2
6,7 %
0:0
6,1 %
2:2
5,8 %

Over 2.5 53 % BTTS 57 % Hauptempfehlung: DNB 2 Risiko high

V9 Ensemble- und Daten-Signale

FIFA Ranking
Offizielle FIFA-Punkte als Grundstärke: Differenz -63,09 · FIFA-Rang 64 vs 56
Gewicht 30,2 % Qualität 95 %
KYRON Elo
KYRON-Elo/Turnier-Elo inklusive Gastgeberbonus: Differenz -312,8
Gewicht 22,9 % Qualität 72 %
Form
Kurzfristige Form aus Formwert/FIFA-Punktedelta: Differenz -2,21
Gewicht 17,3 % Qualität 68 %
Attack/Defense
Offensiv-/Defensiv-Matchup: Heimspur -0,075, Auswärtsspur 0,071
Gewicht 29,7 % Qualität 78 %
Market Check
Kein Markt-/Quoten-Snapshot vorhanden; Modellanteil wird für dieses Spiel nicht gewichtet.
Gewicht 0,0 % Qualität 0 %
Modell-Snapshot anzeigen
{"match":{"id":50,"kickoff_at":"2026-06-24 21:00:00","venue":"Seattle Stadium"},"home":{"id":6,"name":"Bosnien und Herzegowina","short_name":"BIH","elo":"1387.22","kyron_elo":null,"attack_rating":"62.45","defense_rating":"62.89","form_rating":"67.79","rolling_form":null,"fifa_rank":64,"fifa_points":"1387.22","fifa_points_delta":null,"source":"fifa_ranking_2026_06_11","source_date":"2026-06-11","data_quality":"0.95","is_host":0},"away":{"id":7,"name":"Qatar","short_name":"QAT","elo":"1700.00","kyron_elo":null,"attack_rating":"70.00","defense_rating":"70.00","form_rating":"70.00","rolling_form":null,"fifa_rank":56,"fifa_points":"1450.31","fifa_points_delta":null,"source":"fifa_ranking_2026_06_11","source_date":"2026-06-11","data_quality":"0.95","is_host":0},"adjustment":null,"settings":{"base_goals":1.350000000000000088817841970012523233890533447265625,"host_factor":0.11999999999999999555910790149937383830547332763671875,"home_advantage":0.08000000000000000166533453693773481063544750213623046875,"weights":{"fifa_ranking":0.301587301587301570560128993747639469802379608154296875,"kyron_elo":0.2285714285714285642914234131239936687052249908447265625,"form":0.1726984126984127121406942251269356347620487213134765625,"attack_defense":0.2971428571428571530077533680014312267303466796875,"market":0}},"v9_mismatch_goal_bonus":{"weighted_edge":-0.25044177767880471119354979236959479749202728271484375,"bonus":0.050718079928739397133075073043073643930256366729736328125},"ensemble":[{"key":"fifa_ranking","label":"FIFA Ranking","weight":0.25,"home_edge":-0.149094562631045646217131661614985205233097076416015625,"home_xg_adjustment":-0.05069215129455552359960535113714286126196384429931640625,"away_xg_adjustment":0.05069215129455552359960535113714286126196384429931640625,"confidence":0.5461799999999998878053020234801806509494781494140625,"data_quality":0.9499999999999999555910790149937383830547332763671875,"explanation":"Offizielle FIFA-Punkte als Grundstärke: Differenz -63,09 · FIFA-Rang 64 vs 56","debug":{"home_points":1387.220000000000027284841053187847137451171875,"away_points":1450.30999999999994543031789362430572509765625,"points_diff":-63.089999999999918145476840436458587646484375},"effective_weight":0.301587301587301570560128993747639469802379608154296875},{"key":"kyron_elo","label":"KYRON Elo","weight":0.25,"home_edge":-0.65382453101610937817866897603380493819713592529296875,"home_xg_adjustment":-0.1961473593048328190047158159359241835772991180419921875,"away_xg_adjustment":0.1961473593048328190047158159359241835772991180419921875,"confidence":0.90000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"data_quality":0.7199999999999999733546474089962430298328399658203125,"explanation":"KYRON-Elo/Turnier-Elo inklusive Gastgeberbonus: Differenz -312,8","debug":{"home_elo":1387.220000000000027284841053187847137451171875,"away_elo":1700,"home_host_bonus":0,"away_host_bonus":0,"elo_diff":-312.779999999999972715158946812152862548828125},"effective_weight":0.2285714285714285642914234131239936687052249908447265625},{"key":"form","label":"Form","weight":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"home_edge":-0.06499999999999982180920454766237526200711727142333984375,"home_xg_adjustment":-0.01429999999999996031230242721221657120622694492340087890625,"away_xg_adjustment":0.01429999999999996031230242721221657120622694492340087890625,"confidence":0.40018181818181808306889024606789462268352508544921875,"data_quality":0.68000000000000004884981308350688777863979339599609375,"explanation":"Kurzfristige Form aus Formwert/FIFA-Punktedelta: Differenz -2,21","debug":{"home_form":67.7900000000000062527760746888816356658935546875,"away_form":70,"home_delta":0,"away_delta":0,"form_diff":-2.2099999999999937472239253111183643341064453125},"effective_weight":0.1726984126984127121406942251269356347620487213134765625},{"key":"attack_defense","label":"Attack/Defense","weight":0.299999999999999988897769753748434595763683319091796875,"home_edge":-0.1507885714285714107152358565144822932779788970947265625,"home_xg_adjustment":-0.05435999999999997778221683120136731304228305816650390625,"away_xg_adjustment":0.051191999999999994452881679762867861427366733551025390625,"confidence":0.497279999999999944293449516408145427703857421875,"data_quality":0.7800000000000000266453525910037569701671600341796875,"explanation":"Offensiv-/Defensiv-Matchup: Heimspur -0,075, Auswärtsspur 0,071","debug":{"home_attack":62.4500000000000028421709430404007434844970703125,"away_attack":70,"home_defense":62.8900000000000005684341886080801486968994140625,"away_defense":70,"home_lane":-0.07549999999999996991295603265825775451958179473876953125,"away_lane":0.071099999999999996536104163169511593878269195556640625},"effective_weight":0.2971428571428571530077533680014312267303466796875},{"key":"market","label":"Market Check","weight":0,"home_edge":0,"home_xg_adjustment":0,"away_xg_adjustment":0,"confidence":0,"data_quality":0,"explanation":"Kein Markt-/Quoten-Snapshot vorhanden; Modellanteil wird für dieses Spiel nicht gewichtet.","debug":[],"effective_weight":0}],"calibration":{"score":51,"risk":"high","warnings":[],"model_agreement":0.82730158730158731561488139050197787582874298095703125,"separation":0.07191500503367043162228355868137441575527191162109375},"direct_tip":{"score":"1:2","label":"Modell-Scoreline: QAT 2:1 · Hauptempfehlung: Kein harter Tipp · nur DNB 2 als vorsichtige Variante","probability":0.08787226968158880213710659745629527606070041656494140625,"strategy":"representative_outcome_scoreline","exact_score_reliability":"volatile","top_5":[{"home_goals":1,"away_goals":1,"probability":0.11886511159243583202194116665850742720067501068115234375},{"home_goals":0,"away_goals":1,"probability":0.09006224092176585982461034518564702011644840240478515625},{"home_goals":1,"away_goals":2,"probability":0.08787226968158880213710659745629527606070041656494140625},{"home_goals":1,"away_goals":0,"probability":0.08039461598681423015744229587653535418212413787841796875},{"home_goals":2,"away_goals":1,"probability":0.07843972462419379620968129529501311480998992919921875}],"reason":"enger xG-Korridor · Stärkste Signale: KYRON Elo pro Auswärts, FIFA Ranking pro Auswärts · Hauptempfehlung bleibt 1X2/Safe, Exact Score ist Nebeninfo · Safe: DNB 2 · Confidence 51/100 · Risiko high"},"rating_policy":"V9 Trust & Integrity: Hauptempfehlung ist 1X2/Safe; exakte Scoreline ist nur eine repräsentative Modell-Scoreline mit klarer Unsicherheitskennzeichnung.","trust_mode":"honest","primary_recommendation":"Kein harter Tipp · nur DNB 2 als vorsichtige Variante","scoreline_note":"Repräsentative Scoreline gewählt, weil mehrere Top-Ergebnisse dicht beieinander liegen. Reine Top-Scoreline wäre 1:1. Torprofil spricht nicht für reinen Minimal-Score. BTTS-Signal ist relevant. 1X2-Ausgang eng, Exact Score besonders vorsichtig lesen.","display_policy":"Exact Score ist nur Modell-Scoreline/Nebeninfo. Hauptempfehlung ist 1X2 bzw. Safe-Tipp."}