DNB 2 · 2

{"match":{"id":51,"kickoff_at":"2026-06-25 00:00:00","venue":"Miami Stadium"},"home":{"id":12,"name":"Scotland","short_name":"SCO","elo":"1700.00","kyron_elo":null,"attack_rating":"70.00","defense_rating":"70.00","form_rating":"70.00","rolling_form":null,"fifa_rank":42,"fifa_points":"1503.34","fifa_points_delta":"4.99","source":"fifa_ranking_2026_06_11","source_date":"2026-06-11","data_quality":"1.00","is_host":0},"away":{"id":9,"name":"Brazil","short_name":"BRA","elo":"1700.00","kyron_elo":null,"attack_rating":"70.00","defense_rating":"70.00","form_rating":"70.00","rolling_form":null,"fifa_rank":6,"fifa_points":"1765.86","fifa_points_delta":"4.70","source":"fifa_ranking_2026_06_11","source_date":"2026-06-11","data_quality":"1.00","is_host":0},"adjustment":null,"settings":{"base_goals":1.350000000000000088817841970012523233890533447265625,"host_factor":0.11999999999999999555910790149937383830547332763671875,"home_advantage":0.08000000000000000166533453693773481063544750213623046875,"weights":{"fifa_ranking":0.3125,"kyron_elo":0.22499999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"form":0.1700000000000000122124532708767219446599483489990234375,"attack_defense":0.292499999999999982236431605997495353221893310546875,"market":0}},"v9_mismatch_goal_bonus":{"weighted_edge":-0.1728152168184301229469923555370769463479518890380859375,"bonus":0},"ensemble":[{"key":"fifa_ranking","label":"FIFA Ranking","weight":0.25,"home_edge":-0.55463269381897639664913413071190007030963897705078125,"home_xg_adjustment":-0.18857511589845199484472004769486375153064727783203125,"away_xg_adjustment":0.18857511589845199484472004769486375153064727783203125,"confidence":0.92000000000000003996802888650563545525074005126953125,"data_quality":1,"explanation":"Offizielle FIFA-Punkte als Grundstärke: Differenz -262,52 · FIFA-Rang 42 vs 6","debug":{"home_points":1503.339999999999918145476840436458587646484375,"away_points":1765.859999999999899955582804977893829345703125,"points_diff":-262.51999999999998181010596454143524169921875},"effective_weight":0.3125},{"key":"kyron_elo","label":"KYRON Elo","weight":0.25,"home_edge":0,"home_xg_adjustment":0,"away_xg_adjustment":-0,"confidence":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"data_quality":0.7199999999999999733546474089962430298328399658203125,"explanation":"KYRON-Elo/Turnier-Elo inklusive Gastgeberbonus: Differenz 0,0","debug":{"home_elo":1700,"away_elo":1700,"home_host_bonus":0,"away_host_bonus":0,"elo_diff":0},"effective_weight":0.22499999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375},{"key":"form","label":"Form","weight":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"home_edge":0.002985294117647059077003124372140518971718847751617431640625,"home_xg_adjustment":0.00065676470588235300561430474175494964583776891231536865234375,"away_xg_adjustment":-0.00065676470588235300561430474175494964583776891231536865234375,"confidence":0.361845454545454525696612790852668695151805877685546875,"data_quality":0.68000000000000004884981308350688777863979339599609375,"explanation":"Kurzfristige Form aus Formwert/FIFA-Punktedelta: Differenz 0,10","debug":{"home_form":70,"away_form":70,"home_delta":4.9900000000000002131628207280300557613372802734375,"away_delta":4.70000000000000017763568394002504646778106689453125,"form_diff":0.1015000000000000068833827526759705506265163421630859375},"effective_weight":0.1700000000000000122124532708767219446599483489990234375},{"key":"attack_defense","label":"Attack/Defense","weight":0.299999999999999988897769753748434595763683319091796875,"home_edge":0,"home_xg_adjustment":0,"away_xg_adjustment":0,"confidence":0.38000000000000000444089209850062616169452667236328125,"data_quality":0.7800000000000000266453525910037569701671600341796875,"explanation":"Offensiv-/Defensiv-Matchup: Heimspur 0,000, Auswärtsspur 0,000","debug":{"home_attack":70,"away_attack":70,"home_defense":70,"away_defense":70,"home_lane":0,"away_lane":0},"effective_weight":0.292499999999999982236431605997495353221893310546875},{"key":"market","label":"Market Check","weight":0,"home_edge":0,"home_xg_adjustment":0,"away_xg_adjustment":0,"confidence":0,"data_quality":0,"explanation":"Kein Markt-/Quoten-Snapshot vorhanden; Modellanteil wird für dieses Spiel nicht gewichtet.","debug":[],"effective_weight":0}],"calibration":{"score":45,"risk":"high","warnings":[],"model_agreement":0.6875,"separation":0.01712011488328479824616579207940958440303802490234375},"direct_tip":{"score":"1:2","label":"Modell-Scoreline: BRA 2:1 · Hauptempfehlung: Kein harter Tipp · nur DNB 2 als vorsichtige Variante","probability":0.08442084590575578417759317062518675811588764190673828125,"strategy":"representative_outcome_scoreline","exact_score_reliability":"volatile","top_5":[{"home_goals":1,"away_goals":1,"probability":0.11984634138451315255036178086811560206115245819091796875},{"home_goals":0,"away_goals":1,"probability":0.08740367641039674395653236160796950571238994598388671875},{"home_goals":1,"away_goals":0,"probability":0.0850687137113488589523768723665853030979633331298828125},{"home_goals":1,"away_goals":2,"probability":0.08442084590575578417759317062518675811588764190673828125},{"home_goals":2,"away_goals":1,"probability":0.08216556861871752992509954083288903348147869110107421875}],"reason":"enger xG-Korridor · Stärkste Signale: FIFA Ranking pro Auswärts · Hauptempfehlung bleibt 1X2/Safe, Exact Score ist Nebeninfo · Safe: DNB 2 · Confidence 45/100 · Risiko high"},"rating_policy":"V9 Trust & Integrity: Hauptempfehlung ist 1X2/Safe; exakte Scoreline ist nur eine repräsentative Modell-Scoreline mit klarer Unsicherheitskennzeichnung.","trust_mode":"honest","primary_recommendation":"Kein harter Tipp · nur DNB 2 als vorsichtige Variante","scoreline_note":"Repräsentative Scoreline gewählt, weil mehrere Top-Ergebnisse dicht beieinander liegen. Reine Top-Scoreline wäre 1:1. Torprofil spricht nicht für reinen Minimal-Score. BTTS-Signal ist relevant. 1X2-Ausgang eng, Exact Score besonders vorsichtig lesen.","display_policy":"Exact Score ist nur Modell-Scoreline/Nebeninfo. Hauptempfehlung ist 1X2 bzw. Safe-Tipp."}