27.06.2026 05:00Seattle Stadium · Seattle
EgyptvsIran
KYRON Hauptempfehlung

DNB 1 · 1

Modell-Scoreline: EGY 2:1 · Hauptempfehlung: Kein harter Tipp · nur DNB 1 als vorsichtige Variante

8,4 %Scoreline-Wahrscheinlichkeit
2:0Alternativ-Ergebnis
1:1Rein wahrscheinlichste Scoreline
37Reliability
volatileExact-Score-Basis

enger xG-Korridor · Stärkste Signale: Form pro Auswärts, Attack/Defense pro Auswärts · Hauptempfehlung bleibt 1X2/Safe, Exact Score ist Nebeninfo · Safe: DNB 1 · Confidence 46/100 · Risiko high

38 %Sieg EGY
25 %Remis
37 %Sieg IRN
1,40xG Heim
1,38xG Auswärts
11X2 Haupttipp
46Confidence
37Reliability
representative_outcome_scorelineTipp-Strategie
Exact Score ist volatil; als Nebeninfo lesen, nicht als sichere Ergebnisansage.

Plausible Modell-Scorelines

Der exakte Score ist keine sichere Vorhersage. KYRON nutzt ihn nur als Modell-Scoreline; Hauptempfehlung bleiben 1X2, Safe-Tipp und Risiko.

1:1
12,0 %
1:0
8,7 %
0:1
8,5 %
2:1
8,4 %
1:2
8,3 %
0:0
6,2 %
2:0
6,1 %
0:2
5,9 %

Over 2.5 53 % BTTS 56 % Hauptempfehlung: DNB 1 Risiko high

V9 Ensemble- und Daten-Signale

FIFA Ranking
Offizielle FIFA-Punkte als Grundstärke: Differenz -57,21 · FIFA-Rang 29 vs 20
Gewicht 31,3 % Qualität 100 %
KYRON Elo
KYRON-Elo/Turnier-Elo inklusive Gastgeberbonus: Differenz 80,4
Gewicht 22,5 % Qualität 72 %
Form
Kurzfristige Form aus Formwert/FIFA-Punktedelta: Differenz -10,73
Gewicht 17,0 % Qualität 68 %
Attack/Defense
Offensiv-/Defensiv-Matchup: Heimspur -0,070, Auswärtsspur 0,088
Gewicht 29,3 % Qualität 78 %
Market Check
Kein Markt-/Quoten-Snapshot vorhanden; Modellanteil wird für dieses Spiel nicht gewichtet.
Gewicht 0,0 % Qualität 0 %
Modell-Snapshot anzeigen
{"match":{"id":65,"kickoff_at":"2026-06-27 05:00:00","venue":"Seattle Stadium"},"home":{"id":26,"name":"Egypt","short_name":"EGY","elo":"1700.00","kyron_elo":null,"attack_rating":"70.00","defense_rating":"70.00","form_rating":"70.00","rolling_form":null,"fifa_rank":29,"fifa_points":"1562.37","fifa_points_delta":"-0.87","source":"fifa_ranking_2026_06_11","source_date":"2026-06-11","data_quality":"1.00","is_host":0},"away":{"id":27,"name":"Iran","short_name":"IRN","elo":"1619.58","kyron_elo":null,"attack_rating":"78.83","defense_rating":"77.00","form_rating":"78.93","rolling_form":null,"fifa_rank":20,"fifa_points":"1619.58","fifa_points_delta":"4.28","source":"fifa_ranking_2026_06_11","source_date":"2026-06-11","data_quality":"1.00","is_host":0},"adjustment":null,"settings":{"base_goals":1.350000000000000088817841970012523233890533447265625,"host_factor":0.11999999999999999555910790149937383830547332763671875,"home_advantage":0.08000000000000000166533453693773481063544750213623046875,"weights":{"fifa_ranking":0.3125,"kyron_elo":0.22499999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"form":0.1700000000000000122124532708767219446599483489990234375,"attack_defense":0.292499999999999982236431605997495353221893310546875,"market":0}},"v9_mismatch_goal_bonus":{"weighted_edge":-0.098957375815963144471965051707229577004909515380859375,"bonus":0},"ensemble":[{"key":"fifa_ranking","label":"FIFA Ranking","weight":0.25,"home_edge":-0.135378036573845117462866483037942089140415191650390625,"home_xg_adjustment":-0.046028532435107342990487921952080796472728252410888671875,"away_xg_adjustment":0.046028532435107342990487921952080796472728252410888671875,"confidence":0.5344200000000001171684971268405206501483917236328125,"data_quality":1,"explanation":"Offizielle FIFA-Punkte als Grundstärke: Differenz -57,21 · FIFA-Rang 29 vs 20","debug":{"home_points":1562.3699999999998908606357872486114501953125,"away_points":1619.579999999999927240423858165740966796875,"points_diff":-57.2100000000000363797880709171295166015625},"effective_weight":0.3125},{"key":"kyron_elo","label":"KYRON Elo","weight":0.25,"home_edge":0.198384205900663135313521934222080744802951812744140625,"home_xg_adjustment":0.059515261770198939206277799485178547911345958709716796875,"away_xg_adjustment":-0.059515261770198939206277799485178547911345958709716796875,"confidence":0.55465384615384627498002600987092591822147369384765625,"data_quality":0.7199999999999999733546474089962430298328399658203125,"explanation":"KYRON-Elo/Turnier-Elo inklusive Gastgeberbonus: Differenz 80,4","debug":{"home_elo":1700,"away_elo":1619.579999999999927240423858165740966796875,"home_host_bonus":0,"away_host_bonus":0,"elo_diff":80.420000000000072759576141834259033203125},"effective_weight":0.22499999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375},{"key":"form","label":"Form","weight":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"home_edge":-0.315661764705882585957397168385796248912811279296875,"home_xg_adjustment":-0.069445588235294175571965524795814417302608489990234375,"away_xg_adjustment":0.069445588235294175571965524795814417302608489990234375,"confidence":0.55513636363636376103158909245394170284271240234375,"data_quality":0.68000000000000004884981308350688777863979339599609375,"explanation":"Kurzfristige Form aus Formwert/FIFA-Punktedelta: Differenz -10,73","debug":{"home_form":70,"away_form":78.93000000000000682121026329696178436279296875,"home_delta":-0.86999999999999999555910790149937383830547332763671875,"away_delta":4.28000000000000024868995751603506505489349365234375,"form_diff":-10.7325000000000070343730840249918401241302490234375},"effective_weight":0.1700000000000000122124532708767219446599483489990234375},{"key":"attack_defense","label":"Attack/Defense","weight":0.299999999999999988897769753748434595763683319091796875,"home_edge":-0.1628228571428571580526067918981425464153289794921875,"home_xg_adjustment":-0.0504000000000000003552713678800500929355621337890625,"away_xg_adjustment":0.0635759999999999936282080170713015832006931304931640625,"confidence":0.50663999999999997925215211580507457256317138671875,"data_quality":0.7800000000000000266453525910037569701671600341796875,"explanation":"Offensiv-/Defensiv-Matchup: Heimspur -0,070, Auswärtsspur 0,088","debug":{"home_attack":70,"away_attack":78.8299999999999982946974341757595539093017578125,"home_defense":70,"away_defense":77,"home_lane":-0.070000000000000006661338147750939242541790008544921875,"away_lane":0.088299999999999989608312489508534781634807586669921875},"effective_weight":0.292499999999999982236431605997495353221893310546875},{"key":"market","label":"Market Check","weight":0,"home_edge":0,"home_xg_adjustment":0,"away_xg_adjustment":0,"confidence":0,"data_quality":0,"explanation":"Kein Markt-/Quoten-Snapshot vorhanden; Modellanteil wird für dieses Spiel nicht gewichtet.","debug":[],"effective_weight":0}],"calibration":{"score":46,"risk":"high","warnings":[],"model_agreement":0.77500000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"separation":0.009576447722933811856904640080756507813930511474609375},"direct_tip":{"score":"2:1","label":"Modell-Scoreline: EGY 2:1 · Hauptempfehlung: Kein harter Tipp · nur DNB 1 als vorsichtige Variante","probability":0.0839594204831163593016896129483939148485660552978515625,"strategy":"representative_outcome_scoreline","exact_score_reliability":"volatile","top_5":[{"home_goals":1,"away_goals":1,"probability":0.11973170619356841848368588898665620945394039154052734375},{"home_goals":1,"away_goals":0,"probability":0.0866745073737471560804124237620271742343902587890625},{"home_goals":0,"away_goals":1,"probability":0.08537267995379858864790634243036038242280483245849609375},{"home_goals":2,"away_goals":1,"probability":0.0839594204831163593016896129483939148485660552978515625},{"home_goals":1,"away_goals":2,"probability":0.08269837292646169124576971398710156790912151336669921875}],"reason":"enger xG-Korridor · Stärkste Signale: Form pro Auswärts, Attack/Defense pro Auswärts · Hauptempfehlung bleibt 1X2/Safe, Exact Score ist Nebeninfo · Safe: DNB 1 · Confidence 46/100 · Risiko high"},"rating_policy":"V9 Trust & Integrity: Hauptempfehlung ist 1X2/Safe; exakte Scoreline ist nur eine repräsentative Modell-Scoreline mit klarer Unsicherheitskennzeichnung.","trust_mode":"honest","primary_recommendation":"Kein harter Tipp · nur DNB 1 als vorsichtige Variante","scoreline_note":"Repräsentative Scoreline gewählt, weil mehrere Top-Ergebnisse dicht beieinander liegen. Reine Top-Scoreline wäre 1:1. Torprofil spricht nicht für reinen Minimal-Score. BTTS-Signal ist relevant. 1X2-Ausgang eng, Exact Score besonders vorsichtig lesen.","display_policy":"Exact Score ist nur Modell-Scoreline/Nebeninfo. Hauptempfehlung ist 1X2 bzw. Safe-Tipp."}